Heavy Monsoon Rain Bosting Increase of Arakan Army Attacks on Myanmar Security Forces; A Trap of Military Generals and Aung San Suu Kyi for Power and Money Struggles in Rakhine Conflicts

AA men and women cadets are taking writing exam of Sun Tzu's Art of War in training camp

“It is like a football match. Our fighters hassle near their goal area, in half-way line, and in penalty line of 18-yard box as the Myanmar army position their troops near our fighters’ right and left corners as all players mix up. This is the war game how we strategize and fight.”
AN. June 23, 2020.

AA Monsoon Strategy

Military strategists and commander in chief of Arakan Army in Liza, far north of Myanmar, carefully calculate and order their commandos to attack Myanmar security forces where they are weak as a tactic Chinese military general and philosopher Sun Tzu applied thousand years ago. The philosopher said ‘Attack their weaknesses.” 

AA generals are well known of terrain and sky in rough weather region of Arakan territories, intact with storms, thick clouds, and heavy rains that provide good opportunities for the AA guerilla fighters but imposition Myanmar military with misery. 

The bad weather in fact deters the army’s air supports. Jet fighters and helicopters cannot constantly fly and drop bombs and fire missiles on AA positions and fighting grounds since the beginning of June. 

By seizing these opportunities, AA attacked Myanmar military and police forces in several townships of Maungdaw, Kyauktaw, Ponnygun, and Rathedaung.  

Thunderbolt Attacks

Arakan Army attack Myanmar security forces like thunderbolt, quick, hit the target, withdraw immediately, and look for another weak government troops.

In the past, AA set remote mines by lone remote mine experts. But since May, AA combines the mine experts and the commandos. First AA attacks the military conveys and columns by remote mines and immediately follow up the commando attack. This tactic killed hundreds of Myanmar soldiers since May. 

On June 22, Arakan Army attacked border guard police and military covey near Tha Win Chaung village in Maungdaw township at 5 AM. Local people reported first three civilian trucks used by the military were attacked by remote mines and later gun fight broke out near the highway.  Local media reported 3 police and military were killed and 4 injured. 

But Sittway based military analyst—his name is kept for confident, disagreed and said the military causalities are higher than the initial reports but over 40 soldiers and police. 

He said, “The attack was taken place between Koe Tan Kouk in Rathedaung township and Inn Din village in Maungdaw township, exactly near the Tha Win Chaung village, where no populated villages are located since Rohingya people ran out of the villages during the military operation in 2017. First AA attacked the convey by land mines and immediately fired guns and RPGs.”
“Two trucks loaded with 80 soldiers and police were totally damaged, but the red color smaller truck was slightly damaged. And believed to be the military officers and some soldiers quickly ran and hided in the police station. AA guns and RPG could easily reach to trucks and hit the troops directly because AA fighters shot the trucks and the soldiers by close range from the Mayu Mountain range,” he said. 

He said, “Nearby police and military fired 40 artilleries randomly. The fight last about 30 minutes after 5 AM.”

AA previously attacked police stations in Than Zin Myaing and Done Paik in April and May. AA arrested 6 police officers from Than Zin Myaing police station.

Arakan Army attacked patrolling Myanmar army column on railroad near Ah Puck Wa village at 8 AM on June 21. Three civilians, including a Muslim woman, were injured by bullets and shells fired from the Myanmar army. 

Local people said the military fired shells and bullets directly into the village when AA was attacking them near the railroad, 900 meters away from the village. Some witnesses reported that at least 7 soldiers were killed. 

On June 19, AA attacked 80 soldiers from Ponnaygun based Light Infantry Battalion 550 near Guwa Pagoda, about one mile north to the town and near the highway. Local people reported the military caption and several soldiers were killed and a half dozen troop injured.

Villagers discovered two dead bodies of unidentified men dying near the highway the next day of attack. They dead bodies were taken to Ponnaygun hospital.

Local news reported several passengers were also wounded in the buses when they stuck near the highway and casted in crossfire. 

Weeks after Myanmar army set fire Let Kar village in Mrauk U township, AA attacked the army on June 17. Local people reported several soldiers were killed.

Arakan Army attacked Myanmar army near Yet Khone Taing village in Rathedaung township on June 11. Hundreds of villagers were trapped in the village with limited foods. They were successfully rescued weeks later by local charity organizations. 

AA As Manchester United

Local analysts said AA will attack more police and patrolling soldiers in this raining season but avoid attacking on bases because its military strategists in Naypaytaw have been shifting their strategy not to attack AA major bases, but it would rather defend their bases while searching and arresting villagers who are leveled as core supporters of AA.

Colonel Kyaw Han of Arakan Army told our news last year, “It is like a football match. Our fighters hassle near their goal area, in half-way line, and in penalty line of 18-yard box as the Myanmar army position their troops near our fighters’ right and left corners as all players mix up. This is the war game how we strategize and fight.”

He said, “In the middle of the game, the attackers (Myanmar army) would have to reposition its troops from offensive to defensive position.” 

The Sittway based analyst said, “When Myanmar army was attacking AA in Paletwa, AA attacked them in Ponnaygun. When Myanmar troops are attacking AA in Minbya, it fights back in Rathedaung and Maungdaw townships. It is like AA is Manchester United as AA deputy commander DR. Nyo Tun Aung is a huge fan.” 

He said all these separate attacks made the military planners in Naypaytaw restless and confusion. 

Aung San Suu Kyi Is in Trouble 

A confident source in Naypaytaw told our news agency Myanmar generals are posted to their own trapped for recklessly entering the war against AA after enormous look down on AA leaderships and native decision they made they would drove out AA within six months that the military leaders convinced Aung San Suu Kyi and asked for her supports and to use airpowers and later pushed for internet shutdown and media restrictions.

The source said the military leaders even convinced her to declare AA as terrorist organization that would enhance the military more power and defeat AA.

“It is really a wrong move and another fault of the top generals and Aung San Suu Kyi, who is under military trap and besmeared bloody hands.”

He said it is very difficult to end the war because the military leaders have their own interest to defend their personal wealth, business, and power since billions of dollars revenue goes into retired and standing generals’ pockets through MHPC, MEC, Myawaddy Trading, and Myawaddy Bank. Huge amount of dollars from Kyaukphyu natural gas sale to China is part of their kickbacks,” the source said.

The source said if Rakhine people will have more power, the gas sale money from China does not flow into their pockets that is why the generals are aggressively fighting against AA. 

"The longer the military fight, the most casualties the soldiers will face of. Thus, it is difficult for the generals to get out of the war. Then all these bloody burdens will weight on Aung San Suu Kyi and her party, National League for Democracy (NLD). 

“I am very petty for the Rakhine people. They are dying every day for nonsense under a handful of military generals and for their own interest,” the source said. 

He said Aung San Suu Kyi needs to analyze what went wrong with her for too much pleasing and jumbo accommodating the military. 

“She would be end up in the hands of insincere military generals and their won interests,” the source predicted.

Hundreds of civilians are killed and injured and almost 200,000 villagers are forced to be homeless and live in insecure makeshift IDP camps with little international supports since the military operation has reinforced in Rakhine and Chin states last year. 

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