Military Threaten to Kachin of Harboring Arakan Army Is Misconduct

AA and Kachin leaders in Liza 
Sittway. March 30, 2020
Myanmar Army’s Northern Commander General Tayza Kyaw met Kachin’s Peace Creation Group leader Duwa Lami Gum Ja in Kachin State Capital City Myitkyina on March 23 and told the group leader to deliver the message Myanmar army would attack headquarter of Arakan Army in the territory of Kachin Independent Organization (KIO).

He made this clear shortly after Myanmar government declared AA as terrorist organization. 

Duwa Lami Gum Ja told the local news outlets KIO would respond it after Federal Political Negotiating and Consultative Committee (FPNCC) meeting. The committee is political alliance and negotiating political settlement with Myanmar government.

The alliance is comprised with United Wa State Army (UWSA), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) known as Kokang, Shan State Progressive Party (SSPP), Kachin Independent Organization (KIO), Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and Arakan Army. 

Arakan Army is also member of Northern Alliance combined with KIO, MNDDA, and TNLA. 

Three Brotherhood Alliance, AA, MNDAA, and TNLA, has already rejected Myanmar government designation of AA as terrorist organization and determined they would unit and resist the aggression.

The army Spokesperson Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun told the press AA would not only face consequences but also its supporters, harbors, and affiliated individuals and organizations. He further hipped AA would be excluded from peace talks. 

Before the announcement was made, relatives of AA commander Gen Tun Myat Naing were arrested and tried with terrorist laws since last year. Over two hundred accused villagers are also trying with the terrorist laws. Some were already given harsh and lengthy sentences in prisons. 

Myanmar courts also issued arrest warrants over the AA key leaders including its commander. 

After encountering heavy casualties of the Myanmar troops and high-ranking officers in the Rakhine battle within a short period of time, military commanders last year pursued to declare AA as terrorist group. But the government ceasefire negotiation with AA prevented the whirl. 

Last April, the map of AA base location in Liza was released and threaten to launch surgical air strikes. Since then AA leaders have been mobilizing its command and control centers in different locations in the north.

At this time NLD government agrees the military leaderships persuasion to declare AA as terrorist organization. 

Thus, the military leaderships carefully calculate pro and con of the aggressive move. 

There was speculation that some leaderships among KIO were not happy AA leaders remaining in Kachin territory. 

KIO Chairman N’Ban La met the government representatives in Chiang Mai last year. Their discussions were not released in public. But observers assumed the meeting was out of protocol and unusual.  

But some Kachin leaders remain strong tie with the AA leaders. In respect, AA fighters assisted KIO during the waring with the army in 2011 and 2012. Many Arakanese fighters sacrificed  their live during the war. 

Former Rakhine leaders publicly spoke that some Rakhine youths in 2006, the current leaders of AA, met and discussed with  the KIA leaders to set up their bases and give military training in Kachin. The talks took place before the ceasefire broke out in 2011. Then AA was formed in Liza in 2009. 

The commitment of AA and KIO is somehow firm and sharing political aim of self determination and strategic military cooperation based on understating in bitter experience of oppression. 

Analysts warn military solution against KIO on regard to AA located in Kachin will definitely hinder the peace process. 

Reliable sources disclose that the military leaderships are aware of the consequences if they attack KIA.  Wa and other ethnic forces in the northern parts will unavoidably join the defensive war. 

Regard to the military threat, experts point out the army cannot effort to launch two front wars,  Rakhine and Kachin. Outnumbers of troops are sent to Rakhine and facing with overwhelm resistance. If it is fighting war against Kachin, the army will be defeated as German Nazi lost in Russia .
Concern comes to Wa, it is founder and leading party of FPNCC in the north. It is also supporter and sympathizer of AA.  

Observers predict that Wa will back AA in FPNCC meeting and support KIO to resist the army aggression. In fact AA is strategic partner of both parties. 

It is very interesting how FPNCC members will respond to the ultimatum of Myanmar army.

 It is predictable that subsequent consequences of aggressive and reckless military action against KIO by the army for harboring AA is certainly misconduct.  

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