ICJ Decision in Limbo with Civil War in Rakhine; Another Alternative of R2P

ICJ Decision in Limbo with Civil War in Rakhine; Another Alternative of R2P 

New arrival IDPs in Maybon township 
Kuala Lumpur. 27 Jan 2020
International Court of Justice ruled on Myanmar to protect remaining Rohingya community in Rakhine State and preserve evidences on January 23rd. And, the court ordered to report Myanmar the implementation of judgement on regular basis during the genocide trial.

Eight hours after the international court decision, Myanmar army fired artillery into Kin Taung Muslim village and killed two women and even other injured in Butheduang township. 

Rakhine lawmaker U Maung Kyaw Zan confirmed the army killing the women. He said there was no fighting at that time but the army unilaterally fired the shells into the village. 

Local people speculated it was violent response to the ICJ decision. 

De facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi responded over the ICJ decision unfounded genocide but the court heavily replied on UN fact finding mission reports. 

Indeed, the behavior of Myanmar leaders and military are always denial and blame games, finger pointing to UN and human rights advocates. In other words, Myanmar leaders are not yet ready to comply the court decision. 

Instead, Aung San Suu Kyi and military leaders are increasing and intensifying military operations against Arakan Army in this dry season in order to make an excuse of armed conflict zone wherein protection of Rohingya community and repatriation of refugees are impossible.

Analysts are also pointing out she has linked the counter insurgency operation in Rakhine State with the ICJ genocide case, complicating domestic civil war and international justice seeking efforts. 
  
In fact, the war in Rakhine State has already had after Aung San Suu Kyi ordered to crash Arakan Army last year before Gambia brought the case to the court.

Despite of the local Rakhine people and international community disbelieving the interlink between the war and genocide case, both civilian and military leaders deem increasing the war may somehow be a nutshell to cover up or slow down the ICJ decision, or otherwise voluntarily abandon the preventive measurement decision. 

The background is in October 2019, the military strategists conducted a secret survey among the battalions that operate in Rakhine State how the air power, combined with jet fighters and helicopter gunships as well as artillery firepower, to support the ground force when they are attacking Arakan Army positions and bases.

The survey was completed last year, and it is applying in this dry season operations. 

Arakan Army and local news outlets report that jet fighters and helicopters constantly bombing on the Arakan Army positions while the ground forces are attacking. 

AA said Myanmar army also uses UAV drones and MLRS rockets and firing into the mountains and forests on the best guess of probability and possibility of the AA camp locations. 

Military analysts predict that AA will be able to hold the grounds during the dry season offensive due to the limited effect of the air power. 

Since the heavy military operation is increasing in the dry season, civilian casualties and Internal Displaced Persons are multiplying. 

Arakan Information Center (AiC) reports 16 villagers killed, 24 injured, and 10 men were arrested in January. 

Rakhine Ethnic Congress that collects IDP data recently reports 106,000 villagers are displaced and live in temporary camps. 

The dry season operation is just beginning in January, and it will go on until July, fix more moths from February. Local peoples predict the IDPs will be exceeded to over 200,000, but no UN agency is allowed. 

Never too short for excuses on ICJ decision as Aung San Suu Kyi argued in The Hague for the country internal fact finding mission business and urged the court to leave internal solution alone, Independent Commission of Enquiry (IOCE) released the report last week.  It said they did not find any genocide case but possibility of war crimes that is recommended to deal with domestic and military judicial system. 

Judicial systems, both the civilian and military, are very weak and corrupted. None of the court could brought perpetrators to justice, who shot and killed six detainees in Kyauktan village in last May. 

The court in Mrauk U even denied to prosecute the military personals who torture and killed three detainees from Lakkar village. 

It is unfounded history Aung San Suu Kyi has  argued domestic laws and judicial system is the best option but it has ever tries war crime and human rights violation cases in Myanmar. 

Only R2P may have practical leverage to enforce the ICJ decisions and ending civil war in Rakhine State. 

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